Market Commentary
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P Decline Continues While Consumer Demand Keeps Climbing
The S&P 500 continued its string of negative weeks, dropping 3% last week. It was the seventh straight weekly decline in the index of large-cap stocks. The S&P 500 temporarily fell more than 20% on Friday, but the market rallied and the index finished down 18.1% from its January all-time high.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P 500 Decline Continues, But Inflation Shows Signs of Leveling Off
Market volatility continues to make life challenging for investors. The S&P 500 declined for the sixth straight week, the longest streak since 2011. Six-week losing streaks used to be much more common. The S&P 500 declined at least six consecutive weeks six different times from 2000 to 2011.
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Market Commentary
Special Market Commentary: What’s Stressing Out Stocks? These Market Inflection Points
So far, 2022 is faring to have one of the worst ever starts for stock returns. Only 1932 and 1939 have proven to be more difficult through the first four calendar months. The reasons are numerous and front-of-mind for us all: an unexpected war in Ukraine, the lingering impacts of COVID-19, the highest inflation rates in 40 years, and the prospects for a contentious mid-term election right around the corner.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: U.S. and U.K. Central Banks Offer Contradictory Outlooks, Making for a Rollercoaster Market Week
Market volatility surged last week, although the end result for the S&P 500 was a decline of only 0.2%. Central banks were the main culprits for the volatility. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise rates 0.5% and clarified plans on how it will shrink its balance sheet. In the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jay Powell announced there are no plans for rate increases of 0.75% in a single meeting. Those comments contributed to a sharp rally in the S&P 500, which increased almost 3% on Wednesday.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Despite Disappointing GDP, Underlying Strength Keeps U.S. Economy on Solid Footing
Market volatility continued last week as global markets tried to digest a slew of earnings reports and economic updates. Likely the biggest release was the U.S. GDP report for the first quarter, which showed the U.S. economy contracted by an annualized 1.4% over the first three months of the year. While the market initially responded positively, it was obvious by the end of the week that equity markets were nervous.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: As Fed Mulls Bigger Rate Hike, 2022 Bond Market Trending to be Most Volatile in Decades
Markets reflected the jittery disposition of investors. The rapid move in interest rates and persistent inflation have unnerved some investors and contributed to higher volatility. Volatility has risen in most asset classes, but bond investors have experienced the biggest swings. 2022 is tied with 1994 for the second-most large declines in the last 29 years. And 2022 has more than seven months to go! (See Figure 1.)
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Strong US Economy Helps Stave Off Signs of Recession in the Near-Term
Inflation is starting to feel like a winter that just won’t give way to spring. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 1.2% last month and has now risen 8.5% in the last year (Figure 1). Energy and food prices were the main culprits, contributing 80% of the overall increase. Food prices jumped 1.0% and have now risen 8.8% in the last year. Used car prices declined last month, otherwise the data would have been worse. The decline in used car prices helped contain core CPI, which excludes food and energy and only increased 0.3%. Housing, airfares, and lodging were all...read the full article
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Fed Expected to Accelerate Pace of Rate Hikes, Reduce Balance Sheet
Corporate earnings comparisons are getting more difficult. Factset reports first quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 4.5%. Earnings growth will likely increase during the quarter as companies deliberately push earnings estimates lower so they can produce positive surprises. Wherever the growth rate finishes, we expect it to be lower than last year. 2021 earnings benefited from catch-up spending from 2020 and heavy government stimulus.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: US Sees Robust Job Numbers; S&P 500 Closes Out Negative Quarter
The U.S. economy has continued to create jobs. The establishment report, which measures jobs at known entities, added 431,000 new jobs last month. Economists expected 478,000 new jobs. The previous two months were revised higher by nearly 100,000, making up for the slight miss. Unemployment dipped to 3.6%, according to the household survey, which includes self-employed workers. The household survey indicated the labor force grew to 164.4 million, supporting the idea people are returning to the labor force.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Fed Officials Indicate Faster Pace, Steeper Hikes for Interest Rate Increases
Initial jobless claims reached their lowest level since September 1969. Continuing claims fell to 1.35 million and reached their lowest level since 1970. The labor force was half as large then as it is today. Concerns about inflation, excess demand, and uncertainty about Russia’s attack on Ukraine have not stopped firms from keeping the workers they have on the payroll (Figure 1).
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