Market Commentary
Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Stimulus Fuels Retail Sales as Strong Housing Market Faces Hurdles
American consumers put their stimulus checks to work last month. Retail and food service sales rose 5.3% in January, after declining 1.0% in December (Figure 1). Compared to one year ago, sales are 7.4% higher. The strong data resulted from the stimulus checks and declining virus cases. Because of restrictions and risk, the biggest winners were online retailers. Home improvement stores also experienced strong demand as consumers continue to spend extra time at home.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Despite Initial Worry, Inflation Remains Well Controlled
U.S. inflation rose 0.3% last month and is now up 1.4% for the year (Figure 1). Investor concern about inflation has increased in recent months against the backdrop of large stimulus packages and hopes of an economic recovery. Pushing back against that concern is a slowly recovering labor market. Initial jobless claims fell 19,000 from the previous week but remained stubbornly close to 800,000. Continuing claims were more than 4.5 million.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Federal Interest Rates Remain Low with No Increases Planned
The U.S. employment situation remains lackluster. Only 49,000 new jobs were created in January. Unemployment dropped but only because labor force participation fell from 63.4% to 61.4% (Figure 1). As COVID-19 cases have dropped this year, some improvement is expected in coming months. Vaccine distribution remains the most important path toward an improved economy.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Understanding ‘Short Squeezes’ and Last Week’s Intense Market Demands
The prices of a small set of heavily shorted stocks spiked last week as multiple factors conspired to create an intense demand for shares of some companies. The extreme move in prices has created a large gap between the current price and the price targets of even the most optimistic investors.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Chinese GDP Grew in 2020; U.S. Corporations Outperform Q4 Expectations.
Chinese GDP grew 2.3% in 2020, making it the only major economy to grow last year. In the fourth quarter, the Chinese economy grew 6.5% as China continued to gain ground on the U.S. economy. The growth was led by strong performance in industrial production, which rose 7.3% in December, compared to a year earlier.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Biden Proposes New Stimulus Package as Signs Point to Economic Slowdown
The signs of an economic slowdown continue. Initial jobless claims, which are released weekly, spiked to 965,000 last week. Claims increased by 181,000 and marked the highest weekly total since mid-August. Continuing claims increased 199,000, indicating those losing work are not finding new employment right away. Based on other data points, many of those filing for unemployment expect to be rehired when newly imposed restrictions are reduced.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Markets Start the New Year Strong Despite the Chaos in Washington
The vivid pictures and appalling actions in Washington, D.C., Wednesday captured the attention of the globe, but not the interest of markets. The Democratic sweep in the Georgia Senate races didn’t attract a lot of interest from investors either. Neither were markets fazed by the first loss of jobs in a monthly employment report since the recovery began.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: S&P 500 Finishes the Year at a Record High, Unemployment Numbers Decrease Slowly
The S&P 500 wrapped up a surprising year with another strong week. The index of large-cap stocks, including dividends, climbed 1.5% and finished 18.4% higher for the year. Figure 1 shows the performance of the S&P 500, ex-dividends, in 2020 and just how far stocks have roared back from their lows.
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: Trump Signs New Stimulus Package as Vaccine Distribution Continues
The new stimulus package approved by the House and Senate was signed by President Trump Sunday night. The president had proposed upping the aid to individuals to $2,000 after the bipartisan agreement had been reached. Garnering support for that proposal would likely have proven difficult and economic urgency made signing the bill the logical choice. The need for additional support was evidenced by a 1.2% decline in disposable income (Figure 1).
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Market Commentary
Market Commentary: New Support Package to Provide Assistance to Individuals, Businesses and More
The economic slowdown continues. Initial jobless claims climbed 885,000 last week. In the face of additional restrictions and heightened health risks, consumers have scaled back activity. Retail and food service sales dipped 1.1% last month (Figure 1).
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