February Markets Update & 6 Steps to Keep Yourself Safe Scam & Fraud
Happy February. As always, we continue to hope this finds you healthy and safe. Today we wanted to share with you some thoughts about the markets, but also put some emphasis on helping you keep your yourself safe from scams and fraud.
The Markets
Why have stocks been on such a powerful run, overcoming a dangerous pandemic that has rocked our economy?
The tailwinds that have fueled the advance include low interest rates, liquidity from monthly Federal Reserve bond buys, the Fed’s owns forecast that rates will remain low for a considerable period, fiscal stimulus, talk of more fiscal stimulus, an expanding economy, and better than expected corporate profits (Refinitiv).
When sentiment becomes overly bullish, any kind of negative surprise can create volatility. That’s exactly what happened at the end of January. And it occurred in a most unexpected way.
Professional hedge funds have heavily shorted several stocks, which they believe to be overvalued based on current fundamentals. Without getting into the particulars, shorting is a very risky way to make money when a stock falls in value. Theoretically, the loss on shorting is unlimited since there is no ceiling on a stock’s price.
With hedge funds hoping to profit, young traders using Internet forums (particularly wallstreetbets on Reddit), encouraged each other to pile into several securities. The goal: inflict pain on the professionals while turning a profit.
What worried some investors late last month were fears that hedge funds being squeezed on one of these securities in particular might be forced to sell other stocks and raise cash.
Powerful tailwinds have boosted stocks. Mix in social media, an Internet-driven rally, zero-commission trading, and idle hands that have been distracted from their pre-pandemic routines…and unexpected volatility has surfaced.
Rocky Road
Volatility can happen for any number of reasons, and a correction can never be ruled out. But the economic fundamentals that lifted stocks over the last year remain in place.
As February began, interest in the previously mentioned security has begun to recede. Is the insurgency over or might Internet traders look to other stocks?
It’s a question that doesn’t offer an immediate answer. However, we know that longer term, economic fundamentals and economic activity determine stock prices.
As billionaire investor Leon Cooperman said on CNBC late last month, “At the end of the day, the stock market reflects economic progress or the lack thereof. Water seeks its own level.”
Over the longer term, relying on time-tested investment principles and avoiding decisions based on short-term volatility have historically led to the best outcome. Our goal-based planning process takes into account short term risks, but stays grounded in making long term decisions that are going to help you have ease and clarity in reaching your goals.
As we’ve said many times before, your plan is designed to remove the emotional component that may encourage you to sell when volatility strikes. It is also designed to prevent you from taking on too much risk when markets surge and even seasoned investors suddenly feel invincible.
Table 1: Key Index Returns
| MTD/YTD% | |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -2.0 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 1.4 |
| S&P 500 Index | -1.1 |
| Russell 2000 Index | 5.0 |
| MSCI World ex-USA* | -1.1 |
| MSCI Emerging Markets* | 3.0 |
|
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond TR |
-0.7 |
Source: MSCI.com, Morningstar, MarketWatch
MTD: returns: Dec 31, 2020-Jan 29, 2021
YTD returns: Dec 31, 2020-Jan 29, 2021
*in US dollars
6 Steps to Help Keep Yourself Safe from Scams and Fraud
Internet scams show no signs of letting up. In fact, the problem may be getting worse. In its most recent report from the [[https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2019-internet-crime-report-released-021120 Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3)]], the FBI said it saw the largest number of complaints and the highest dollar losses reported since the center was established 20 years ago.
The FBI said it recorded 467,361 complaints in 2019 and more than $3.5 billion in losses to individuals and businesses.
The costliest scams involved business email compromise, romance or confidence fraud, and mimicking the account of a person or vendor known to the victim to gather personal or financial information, the FBI said.
“Criminals are getting so sophisticated,” Donna Gregory, the chief of IC3 said. “It is getting harder and harder for victims to spot the red flags and tell real from fake.”
But you can avoid becoming a victim with vigilance and common-sense steps.
- Beware of the fake invoice or suspicious email. Be sure to check that email address. The name may be familiar, but the email address may be a long string of unrelated characters. Other scamsters may have an email that is one letter off. Or they may simply use .net instead of .com.
Does an invoice ask you to provide new bank information? That’s a potential red flag. A simple way to side-step a fraudulent transfer of funds is to verify you are using a trusted source, for instance making a quick phone call to the vendor. If you are business owner, require your employees to call and verify payment requests using phone numbers that are on file.
- Scammers will pretend to be from an institution you are familiar with. You’ve probably received these emails or phone calls. Someone reaches out to you claiming to be from the IRS, the Social Security Administration, or another government organization. The caller says you owe money and that you must pay, or legal action will be taken.
The email may have official logos, or your caller ID may reflect the government agency’s name.
Let me be clear on this. The IRS will never make first contact via a phone call and claim you owe them money. You’ll receive a letter with details and steps you can take. If you receive a call, simply hang up the phone. Please do not engage the caller. Some may threaten or become abusive.
If you “settle” and pay over the phone, expect repeated phone calls as more “discrepancies” are found. In other words, they will extract as much cash as you allow them too.
- Avoid the Social Security scam. In one version of the scam, the caller says your Social Security number has been linked to a crime involving drugs or sending money out of the country illegally. They then tell you that your Social Security number is blocked. For a fee, it can be reactivated. Then the scammer will ask you to confirm your Social Security number.
Hang up. The Social Security Administration will never call you on the phone and ask for your Social Security number.
- Scammers will tell you how to pay. They often insist that you pay by sending money through a money transfer company or by putting money on a gift card and then giving them the number on the back.
Others will send you a check (that will later turn out to be fake), tell you to deposit it, and then send them money. This is a common Craigslist scam. The caller wants to purchase your items sight unseen. Or they will want you to set up a PayPal account or some other type of electronic payment. (On the other hand, if you are selling items, cash is usually the best way to proceed.)
- Pop-up warnings. Tech support scammers may try to lure you with a pop-up window that appears on your computer screen. It might look like an error message from your operating system or antivirus software. It might use logos from trusted companies or websites.
The message in the window warns of a security issue on your computer and directs you to call a phone number to get help. Simply ignore. You can always use your antivirus software to scan.
If you call, they’ll likely give you worthless information–for a fee. They may also have you download malware or other unwanted software that they claim will fix the issue.
- Avoid phishing scams. [[https://www.phishing.org/what-is-phishing Phishing]] is a cybercrime in which a person is contacted by email, telephone, or text message by someone posing as a legitimate institution to lure individuals into providing sensitive data such as banking, credit card details and passwords.
Phishing emails and text messages spin a tale in order to trick you into clicking on a link or opening an attachment.
For example, they may:
- Claim they’ve noticed some suspicious activity or log-in attempts
- Claim there’s a problem with your account or your payment information
- Say you must confirm some personal information
- Include a fake invoice
- Want you to click on a link to make a payment
- Say you’re eligible to register for a government refund
- Offer a coupon for free items
Here is one example from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC): You may receive an email that appears to be from a company you are familiar with, such as Netflix. Not everyone subscribes to Netflix, but tens of millions do.
You receive the email requiring that you update credit card or bank information for payment. If you comply, you’ve given criminals personal information they can use to steal from you. (If you are unsure, go to the website of the company and check your information there.)
Also be careful about clicking on links or attachments that could compromise your personal information or lock up your computer. Use these four steps to protect yourself from phishing:
- Use updated virus protection software and keep your browsers and operating system updated.
- Protect your mobile phone by setting software to update automatically.
- Protect your data by backing it up.
- Protect your accounts by using multifactor authentication, which simply means you will get a text or email with a passcode when you log into an account.
Please note that some of these email/texts now include a warning not to give out the passcode to anyone. Why is this needed? Some scammers will attempt to log into your account, then call claiming they are from that company and need your passcode. Just hang up.
- Steer clear of the fake Facebook page. Scammers sometimes set up a fake Facebook page of a well-known company. Scammers then add a post claiming they will give away autos, free airline tickets, or thousands of dollars to “hundreds of lucky winners.” Simply share the post, comment, click on a provided link, and fill out the requested information.
If you look at the FB page, you’ll notice it’s brand new as there are few posts, and it lacks a verified FB badge indicating its authenticity. However, you’ll see hundreds of individuals who have dutifully complied with the scammer’s requirements. Sadly, they will win nothing but grief.
What To Do If You are Scammed
Be vigilant and use common sense. Anyone can fall victim to these scams. If you have paid someone, call your bank, money transfer app, or credit card company and see if they can reverse the charges.
If you gave personal information, go to [[https://www.IdentityTheft.gov IdentityTheft.gov]] to see what steps you should take, including how to monitor your credit.
Did a scammer take control of your cell phone number and account? Contact your service provider to take back control of your phone number. Once you do, change your account password. Passwords should be lengthy and include numbers, letters, special characters, and capitalized letters. Short passwords can easily be hacked using computer programs.
When you report a scam, the FTC can use the information to build cases against scammers, spot trends, educate the public, and share data about what is happening in your community. If you were scammed, report it to the FTC at ReportFraud.ftc.gov.
Finally, be vigilant and use common sense. Avoid clicking on suspicious links, and never give out personal information to a stranger over the phone. You’d never tell your best friend your annual income, so why would you give a suspicious caller your passwords, bank information, date of birth or your Social Security number.
Sources and further reading
- [[https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/how-avoid-scam How to avoid a scam]]
- [[https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/what-do-if-you-were-scammed What to do if you were scammed]]
- [[https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/how-recognize-and-avoid-phishing-scams How to recognize and avoid phishing scams]]
- [[https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/blog/2018/12/fake-calls-about-your-ssn Fake calls about your SSN]]
- [[https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/how-spot-avoid-and-report-tech-support-scams How to spot, avoid and report tech support scams]]
As always, please reach out to us if you have any questions in your planning that we can discuss with you.
All the best,
Kerry Meath-Sinkin, Partner & Wealth Advisor
Robert Meath, Founder & Wealth Advisor
Copyright © 2021 by Horsesmouth, LLC. All rights reserved. IMPORTANT NOTICE: This reprint is provided exclusively for use by the licensee, including for client education, and is subject to applicable copyright laws. Unauthorized use, reproduction, or distribution of this material is a violation of federal law and punishable by civil and criminal penalty. This material is furnished “as is” without warranty of any kind. Its accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed and all warranties expressed or implied are hereby excluded.
The views stated in this piece are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.
The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.
The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The MSCI World Index represents 23 developed market countries.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.
The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, or the Agg, is a broad base, market capitalization-weighted bond market index representing intermediate term investment grade bonds traded in the United States. Investors frequently use the index as a stand-in for measuring the performance of the US bond market.